Data current as of 10 August 2026.
At the time of publication, the Bank of Russia key rate stands at 14%. For the third ten-day period of July, the average maximum rate across the ten banks holding the largest volume of household deposits was 12.845%, and 12.45% for deposits with terms from 181 days to one year. These figures come from the Bank of Russia monitoring published on 31 July 2026.
This is where the rounded 12–13% per year reference comes from. It is not the average rate across all banks, and it is not a guaranteed offer to any individual depositor — it is the average maximum rate among the ten largest banks under the Bank of Russia methodology.
Such a reference works for a deposit you can open today for a term of up to a year. It cannot be extended unchanged to 5 or 10 years: once the deposit matures, the money has to be placed again, and by then the rate may be different.
The short answer
If the comparison runs in a calculator with monthly compounding enabled, the base scenario gives:
| Calculation horizon | Rate to enter in the calculator | Range for scenario testing |
|---|---|---|
| 3 years | 9.5% per year | roughly 9–10% |
| 5 years | 8.5% per year | roughly 7.5–9% |
| 10 years | 7.5% per year | roughly 7–8% |
These values are derived for one specific strategy: open a deposit now, then roll it over every year together with the interest earned. The derivation uses the current deposit rate, the Bank of Russia base forecast for the key rate, and an explicitly stated assumption about the gap between the key rate and deposit rates. Every step is set out below.
This is not a return forecast and not a promise of any bank's rate. The ranges exist to test how sensitive your result is, and they are not statistical confidence intervals.
What rates are available today
Since 27 July 2026 the Bank of Russia key rate has stood at 14%. The monitoring of the ten largest banks by deposit volume for the third ten-day period of July 2026 reports the following:
Deposit rates sit below the key rate, and long terms sit noticeably below short ones. This is the first sign that today’s rate cannot be carried over ten years.
| Bank of Russia indicator | Rate |
|---|---|
| Average maximum rate across the ten largest banks by deposit volume | 12.845% |
| Average maximum rate on deposits up to 90 days | 12.34% |
| Average maximum rate on deposits from 91 to 180 days | 12.63% |
| Average maximum rate on deposits from 181 days to 1 year | 12.45% |
| Average maximum rate on deposits over 1 year | 11.46% |
Sources: the time series of the maximum rate across the top ten banks and the monitoring for the third ten-day period of July 2026.
These indicators need to be read correctly. The Bank of Russia:
- counts maximum rates available to any customer without preconditions;
- excludes rates with compounding;
- excludes bundled products and premiums that require additional purchases or card turnover;
- computes the headline indicator as the arithmetic mean of the ten banks' maximum rates.
12.45% is therefore used below as the official market reference for a 6–12 month deposit, not as a rate every user will necessarily obtain. For your own calculation, replace it with the rate on a deposit actually available to you.
What the Bank of Russia forecasts
Deposit rates are closely tied to the key rate but are not equal to it. When the key rate falls, banks usually reduce the yield on new deposits. Changes can arrive in advance, because a bank prices in the expected cost of money across the whole term of the deposit.
The band is the Bank of Russia base forecast range; the line within it is its midpoint, used for the base scenario. The dashed line is the analyst-survey median, included only as an independent uncertainty check.
In its base scenario, the Bank of Russia forecasts the following average key rate levels:
| Year | Bank of Russia base forecast | Midpoint of the range | Analyst survey median |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.5–14.6% | 14.55% | 14.5% |
| 2027 | 10.5–12.5% | 11.5% | 12.2% |
| 2028 | 8.0–9.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% |
| 2029 | 7.5–8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% |
Sources: the Bank of Russia medium-term forecast of 5 August 2026 and the Bank of Russia macroeconomic survey, July 2026.
The analyst survey appears only as an independent check on uncertainty. It is not blended into the calculation below: the base trajectory is built from the midpoints of the regulator's own forecast ranges.
The forecast ends in 2029. Using an average level of 8% for the key rate after 2029 is a separate scenario assumption, based on the long-run neutral rate range of 7.5–8.5% stated by the Bank of Russia. It is not a published year-by-year forecast out to 2036.
How the deposit reference is derived from the key rate
There is no fixed formula linking the key rate to the rate on any particular deposit. A bank's terms depend on the term itself, its need for funding, competition for customers, and product restrictions.
The scenario uses the gap observed on the date of publication:
- key rate — 14%;
- headline maximum rate across the top ten banks — 12.845%: a gap of 1.155 percentage points;
- rate on deposits of 181–365 days — 12.45%: a gap of 1.55 percentage points.
For the scenario, the observed gap is rounded to a range of 1–1.5 percentage points, with its midpoint — 1.25 percentage points — taken as the central value. This is a choice made inside the model, not a statistical estimate of the average gap over a long period.
It is a scenario assumption, not a Bank of Russia formula. The actual gap in future may turn out to be either smaller or larger.
The base rate trajectory
The derivation takes four steps:
The three scenarios diverge only from year two: the first deposit’s current rate is the same in all of them, isolating uncertainty about future rollovers.
- For the first year, take the current reference for a 181–365 day deposit — 12.45%.
- For the next rollover, use the midpoint of the 2027 key rate forecast:
11.5% − 1.25 pp = 10.25%. - For the third year, use the midpoint of the 2028 forecast:
8.5% − 1.25 pp = 7.25%. - From the fourth year, use the long-run assumption:
8.0% − 1.25 pp = 6.75%.
That produces the following notional trajectory:
| Placement period | Deposit rate in the base scenario | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| First year | 12.45% | Bank of Russia monitoring |
| Second year | 10.25% | 11.5% − 1.25 pp |
| Third year | 7.25% | 8.5% − 1.25 pp |
| Fourth year onwards | 6.75% | 8.0% − 1.25 pp |
This is a simplified mapping of a calendar-year forecast onto annual rollovers. The actual rollover date will not coincide exactly with a calendar year, and a bank will price in expectations across the full term of the new deposit. Treat the trajectory as a base scenario, not as a month-by-month forecast.
How the trajectory collapses into one calculator field
The calculator applies a single entered rate across the whole chosen horizon. With compounding enabled, interest accrues monthly. So you cannot simply take the arithmetic mean of the annual rates.
First, compute the cumulative multiplier of the annual rollovers:
multiplier = (1 + rate₁) × (1 + rate₂) × … × (1 + rateₙ)
Then find the constant rate r at which monthly compounding in the calculator produces the same result:
(1 + r / 12) ^ (12 × N) = multiplier
r = 12 × (multiplier ^ (1 / (12 × N)) − 1)
The base scenario gives:
| Horizon | Equivalent effective annual rate | Rate for the calculator field with monthly compounding | Practical rounding |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 years | 9.96% | 9.53% | 9.5% |
| 5 years | 8.67% | 8.34% | 8.5% |
| 10 years | 7.70% | 7.44% | 7.5% |
The difference between the two middle columns comes from monthly compounding: the nominal rate you enter turns into a slightly higher effective annual yield.
Why the calculator defaults to 8.5%
Rent Calc opens on a five-year horizon, so the rate field is pre-filled with the value derived for exactly five years: 8.5%. The default view and the default rate match deliberately — otherwise the base calculation would rest on an assumption that appears nowhere on this page.
That is noticeably below today's 12.8%, and the gap looks counterintuitive. But entering the current rate would model a deposit rolled over at 12% for ten years running — contrary to the Bank of Russia's own forecast, which puts the key rate at 7.5–8.5% after 2029.
An inflated rate carries a second cost. Rental income in the calculator is computed after tax while the deposit is computed before tax, so the deposit benchmark is already tilted in its own favour. A rate above the derived one would deepen a bias that already exists.
| Horizon | Derived | Value in the field |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 11.79% | 12% |
| 3 years | 9.53% | 9.5% |
| 5 years — default | 8.34% | 8.5% |
| 7 years | 7.83% | 8% |
| 10 years | 7.44% | 7.5% |
If your horizon differs from five years, replace the rate with the value from this table. On a one-year calculation the rounding lands on exactly today's 12% — the familiar figure appears where it genuinely applies.
How the scenario ranges are derived
The ranges at the top of this page are not arbitrary either:
- the fast-decline scenario uses the lower bounds of the key rate forecast and a gap of 1.5 pp between the key and deposit rates;
- the base scenario uses the midpoints of the forecast ranges and a gap of 1.25 pp;
- the higher-rates scenario uses the upper bounds of the forecast and a gap of 1 pp.
The first-year rate is left at 12.45% in all three scenarios, so that the uncertainty of future rollovers is shown on its own. If a different rate is available to you now, replace the first reference with your own bank's terms.
Before the conversion to monthly compounding, the annual trajectories look like this:
| Scenario | First year | Second year | Third year | Fourth year onwards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates fall quickly | 12.45% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% |
| Base | 12.45% | 10.25% | 7.25% | 6.75% |
| Rates stay higher | 12.45% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% |
For example, the second-year rate in the fast-decline scenario is 10.5% − 1.5 pp = 9.0%, and in the higher-rates scenario 12.5% − 1 pp = 11.5%. The remaining points are derived the same way from the bounds of the official forecast.
After converting to monthly compounding, the rounded values to enter are:
The longer the horizon, the lower the rate and the closer the scenarios converge: over ten years, the extremes are only one percentage point apart.
| Scenario | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | What it assumes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates fall quickly | 9% | 7.5% | 7% | lower bounds of the forecast and a wider gap to deposit rates |
| Base | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | midpoints of the forecast ranges and a 1.25 pp gap |
| Rates stay higher | 10% | 9% | 8% | upper bounds of the forecast and a narrower gap to deposit rates |
This is a scenario range, not an estimate of how likely each outcome is. Inflation, fiscal policy, the rouble exchange rate, and external conditions could push actual rates outside it.
What to settle before calculating
- Use the rate on a deposit available to you. Bank of Russia indicators are a market reference, not a personal offer.
- Do not carry a short deposit's rate across ten years. Once the term ends, the money has to be placed on new terms.
- Do not conflate the key rate with deposit rates. The key rate forecast is used only as the basis for a scenario of future deposits.
- Test several scenarios. The base value does not replace checking a faster and a slower decline in rates.
- Mind how interest accrues. The recommendations on this page are derived for monthly compounding in the calculator.
- Compare on a like-for-like basis. Taxes and costs on the deposit and on the property must be treated symmetrically.
The other half of the comparison is the flat itself. Where the assumptions about its value and rent growth come from is covered separately: how flat prices and rents grew in Russia.
Tax on deposit interest
Interest on Russian bank deposits is subject to personal income tax only on the portion exceeding the tax-free interest allowance. The tax is charged neither on the deposit itself nor on the full amount of interest, but on the excess over the annual limit for total interest income.
The tax-free allowance is calculated as one million roubles multiplied by the highest Bank of Russia key rate in force on the first day of each month of the relevant calendar year. Long-term deposits that pay interest at maturity carry additional specifics.
Before deciding, check the current rules on the Federal Tax Service page on the taxation of deposit interest (in Russian).
The rates and scenario results on this page are stated before tax.
In summary
The rounded current reference of 12–13% rests on Bank of Russia monitoring: 12.845% on the headline top-ten indicator and 12.45% on 181–365 day deposits at the end of July 2026.
For a long-term comparison, that rate does not hold. The base scenario combines the current rate on the first deposit, the midpoints of the official key rate forecast ranges, and a separate assumption of a 1.25 percentage point gap between the key and deposit rates.
With monthly compounding in the calculator, a reasonable starting point is 9.5% over 3 years, 8.5% over 5 years, and 7.5% over 10 years. After that, check the result against the neighbouring scenarios in the table above.
If the outcome of the comparison flips on a small change in the rate, treat the calculation not as a finished answer but as a signal to look more closely at the deposit terms, the parameters of the flat, and your own expectations for the market.
Put the rate for your horizon into Rent Calc and check whether the conclusion holds both if rates fall quickly and if they stay high.
Sources
- Bank of Russia — key rate of 14% from 27 July 2026
- Bank of Russia — time series of the maximum deposit rate across the top ten banks
- Bank of Russia — rate monitoring for the third ten-day period of July 2026
- Bank of Russia — medium-term forecast of 5 August 2026
- Bank of Russia — macroeconomic analyst survey, July 2026
- Federal Tax Service — taxation of interest income on deposits
Related material. The deposit rate is only one side of the comparison. The assumptions about property value and rent growth are covered in How flat prices and rents grew in Russia.
This material is provided for information only. The Bank of Russia forecast reflects its base scenario and may be revised. The actual rate depends on the bank, the term, the amount, and the product's conditions.
This material is for information only. The Bank of Russia forecast reflects its base scenario and may be revised. The actual rate depends on the bank, the term, the amount, and the product terms.